Trump's Middle East Policy: Winners And Losers

5 min read Post on May 18, 2025

Trump's Middle East Policy: Winners And Losers

Winners Under Trump's Middle East Policy

Trump's "America First" approach, while controversial, yielded distinct advantages for certain regional players.

Israel: Unprecedented Support and Strengthened Alliance

The Trump administration demonstrated an unprecedented level of support for Israel, strengthening the US-Israel alliance significantly. This manifested in several key ways:

Increased Military Aid: The administration provided substantial increases in military aid to Israel, bolstering its defense capabilities and regional dominance. This is a key aspect of understanding Trump’s Middle East policy.
Recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's Capital: Trump's decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital and move the US embassy there was a landmark shift in US policy, long-sought by Israeli governments. This move, while celebrated by Israel, drew international criticism.
Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal: Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) removed a significant point of contention between the US and Israel, easing pressure on Israel and allowing for a more unified approach to containing Iran. This is a critical element of analyzing Trump's Middle East policy.
Support for Israeli Annexation Plans in the West Bank (Controversial): The administration voiced support for certain Israeli annexation plans in the West Bank, although these plans faced significant international opposition and remain a contentious issue.

Saudi Arabia and Gulf States: Strategic Partnership Against Iran

Trump prioritized a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States, focusing on counter-terrorism and containing Iran's regional influence. This involved:

Increased Arms Sales: Significant increases in arms sales to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states strengthened their military capabilities. This aspect of Trump’s Middle East policy has drawn scrutiny regarding human rights implications.
Strategic Partnership Against Shared Regional Threats: The administration fostered closer military and intelligence cooperation to counter shared threats, primarily from Iran and its proxies. This collaborative effort is a key feature of Trump's Middle East policy.
Less Emphasis on Human Rights Concerns: Critics argued that the administration downplayed human rights concerns in its relationships with these states in pursuit of strategic goals. This remains a controversial aspect of Trump's Middle East policy.

Certain Kurdish Groups (Initially): Support Against ISIS, Followed by Setback

Initially, certain Kurdish groups received significant US support in the fight against ISIS. However, this support was later significantly diminished:

Assistance in the Fight Against ISIS: Kurdish fighters played a crucial role in the fight against ISIS, receiving substantial US military and logistical assistance. Understanding this aspect of Trump's Middle East policy necessitates examining the changing dynamics of the conflict.
Later Withdrawal of US Troops Led to Setbacks: The subsequent withdrawal of US troops from Northern Syria left Kurdish groups vulnerable to attacks from Turkey and other adversaries, leading to a significant setback. This is a highly debated aspect of Trump’s Middle East policy.

Losers Under Trump's Middle East Policy

While some benefited, other actors experienced significant setbacks under Trump's Middle East policy.

Palestine: Significant Setbacks in Peace Negotiations and Territorial Claims

The Trump administration's policies inflicted significant damage on Palestinian aspirations for statehood and peace negotiations.

Recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's Capital: This move was deeply damaging to Palestinian hopes for East Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state.
Reduction in US Aid: US aid to the Palestinian Authority was reduced, impacting essential services and development programs.
Limited Progress on the Two-State Solution: The administration made limited progress toward a two-state solution, with its "Deal of the Century" plan largely rejected by the Palestinians.
Weakened International Support for Palestinian Statehood: The administration's policies weakened international support for Palestinian statehood aspirations.

Iran: Increased Sanctions and Pressure, but No Regime Change

The "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, while intensifying sanctions and pressure, failed to achieve regime change.

Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal: This withdrawal significantly escalated tensions with Iran and triggered a series of retaliatory actions.
"Maximum Pressure" Campaign: This campaign involved crippling sanctions and increased military posturing, but failed to force significant concessions from the Iranian government.
Increased Tensions and Military Posturing: The increased pressure led to heightened regional tensions and military posturing, increasing the risk of conflict.

Syrian Kurds: Abandonment by the US, Leading to Increased Vulnerability

The abrupt withdrawal of US troops from Northern Syria left Syrian Kurds vulnerable to Turkish military offensives.

Withdrawal of US Troops from Northern Syria: This withdrawal exposed Kurdish forces to significant danger, leading to a humanitarian crisis and mass displacement.
Turkish Military Offensive in Northern Syria: Turkey launched a military offensive in Northern Syria, targeting Kurdish groups and causing a significant humanitarian crisis.
Humanitarian Crisis Exacerbated: The conflict resulted in a further deterioration of the already dire humanitarian situation in the region.

Yemen: Continued Humanitarian Crisis Despite Attempts at Brokering Peace

Despite attempts at brokering peace, the humanitarian crisis in Yemen continued unabated under the Trump administration.

Limited US Involvement in the Conflict: The US played a limited role in resolving the conflict, leaving the humanitarian situation largely unaddressed.
Ongoing Conflict and Widespread Famine: The ongoing conflict caused widespread famine and suffering, with millions displaced and in need of humanitarian assistance.
Human rights concerns largely ignored: The administration largely ignored the severe human rights violations committed during the conflict.

Conclusion

Trump's Middle East policy was characterized by a significant shift away from traditional alliances and a focus on prioritizing perceived US national interests. While Israel and certain Gulf States benefited from increased support and a more assertive US stance against Iran, Palestine, Syria, and Yemen suffered significant setbacks. The legacy of Trump's "America First" approach in the Middle East remains complex and highly debated, with lasting consequences for regional stability and international relations. Understanding the winners and losers under Trump's Middle East policy is crucial for navigating the current geopolitical landscape. To delve deeper into the intricacies of this complex issue, further research into specific aspects of Trump's Middle East policy is strongly encouraged.